Discontinuous epidemic transition due to limited testing

Davide Scarselli, Nazmi Burak Budanur, Marc Timme and Björn Hof ()
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Davide Scarselli: Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Nazmi Burak Budanur: Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Marc Timme: Institute for Theoretical Physics and Center of Excellence Physics of Life, Technical University of Dresden
Björn Hof: Institute of Science and Technology Austria

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-6

Abstract: Abstract High impact epidemics constitute one of the largest threats humanity is facing in the 21st century. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, physical distancing together with testing, contact tracing and quarantining are crucial in slowing down epidemic dynamics. Yet, here we show that if testing capacities are limited, containment may fail dramatically because such combined countermeasures drastically change the rules of the epidemic transition: Instead of continuous, the response to countermeasures becomes discontinuous. Rather than following the conventional exponential growth, the outbreak that is initially strongly suppressed eventually accelerates and scales faster than exponential during an explosive growth period. As a consequence, containment measures either suffice to stop the outbreak at low total case numbers or fail catastrophically if marginally too weak, thus implying large uncertainties in reliably estimating overall epidemic dynamics, both during initial phases and during second wave scenarios.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22725-9

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