On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty

Kaj-Ivar Wijst (), Andries F. Hof and Detlef P. Vuuren
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Kaj-Ivar Wijst: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Andries F. Hof: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Determining international climate mitigation response strategies is a complex task. Integrated Assessment Models support this process by analysing the interplay of the most relevant factors, including socio-economic developments, climate system uncertainty, damage estimates, mitigation costs and discount rates. Here, we develop a meta-model that disentangles the uncertainties of these factors using full literature ranges. This model allows comparing insights of the cost-minimising and cost-benefit modelling communities. Typically, mitigation scenarios focus on minimum-cost pathways achieving the Paris Agreement without accounting for damages; our analysis shows doing so could double the initial carbon price. In a full cost-benefit setting, we show that the optimal temperature target does not exceed 2.5 °C when considering medium damages and low discount rates, even with high mitigation costs. With low mitigation costs, optimal temperature change drops to 1.5 °C or less. The most important factor determining the optimal temperature is the damage function, accounting for 50% of the uncertainty.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22826-5

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