The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections

Lorenzo Mari (), Renato Casagrandi, Enrico Bertuzzo, Damiano Pasetto, Stefano Miccoli, Andrea Rinaldo () and Marino Gatto ()
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Lorenzo Mari: Politecnico di Milano
Renato Casagrandi: Politecnico di Milano
Enrico Bertuzzo: Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia
Damiano Pasetto: Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia
Stefano Miccoli: Politecnico di Milano
Andrea Rinaldo: Laboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Marino Gatto: Politecnico di Milano

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Several indices can predict the long-term fate of emerging infectious diseases and the effect of their containment measures, including a variety of reproduction numbers (e.g. $${{\mathcal{R}}}_{0}$$ R 0 ). Other indices evaluate the potential for transient increases of epidemics eventually doomed to disappearance, based on generalized reactivity analysis. They identify conditions for perturbations to a stable disease-free equilibrium ( $${{\mathcal{R}}}_{0}\, 0, initial foci may cause infection peaks even if $${{\mathcal{R}}}_{0}\,

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22878-7

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