Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

Anderson Fernandes Brito, Lais Ceschini Machado, Rachel J. Oidtman, Márcio Junio Lima Siconelli, Quan Minh Tran, Joseph R. Fauver, Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Carvalho, Filipe Zimmer Dezordi, Mylena Ribeiro Pereira, Luiza Antunes Castro-Jorge, Elaine Cristina Manini Minto, Luzia Márcia Romanholi Passos, Chaney C. Kalinich, Mary E. Petrone, Emma Allen, Guido Camargo España, Angkana T. Huang, Derek A. T. Cummings, Guy Baele, Rafael Freitas Oliveira Franca, Benedito Antônio Lopes Fonseca, T. Alex Perkins, Gabriel Luz Wallau () and Nathan D. Grubaugh ()
Additional contact information
Anderson Fernandes Brito: Yale University
Lais Ceschini Machado: Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz
Rachel J. Oidtman: University of Notre Dame
Márcio Junio Lima Siconelli: University of São Paulo
Quan Minh Tran: University of Notre Dame
Joseph R. Fauver: Yale University
Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Carvalho: Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz
Filipe Zimmer Dezordi: Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz
Mylena Ribeiro Pereira: Aggeu Magalhaes Institute, Fiocruz
Luiza Antunes Castro-Jorge: University of São Paulo
Elaine Cristina Manini Minto: Municipal Health Secretary from Ribeirão Preto
Luzia Márcia Romanholi Passos: Municipal Health Secretary from Ribeirão Preto
Chaney C. Kalinich: Yale University
Mary E. Petrone: Yale University
Emma Allen: Yale University
Guido Camargo España: University of Notre Dame
Angkana T. Huang: University of Florida
Derek A. T. Cummings: University of Florida
Guy Baele: Rega Institute, Laboratory of Evolutionary and Computational Virology
Rafael Freitas Oliveira Franca: Aggeu Magalhaes Institute, Fiocruz
Benedito Antônio Lopes Fonseca: University of São Paulo
T. Alex Perkins: University of Notre Dame
Gabriel Luz Wallau: Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz
Nathan D. Grubaugh: Yale University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22921-7

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22921-7

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