Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia

Eugenio Valdano, Justin T. Okano, Vittoria Colizza, Honore K. Mitonga and Sally Blower ()
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Eugenio Valdano: University of California
Justin T. Okano: University of California
Vittoria Colizza: INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP
Honore K. Mitonga: University of Namibia
Sally Blower: University of California

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Twenty-six million people are living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa; epidemics are widely dispersed, due to high levels of mobility. However, global elimination strategies do not consider mobility. We use Call Detail Records from 9 billion calls/texts to model mobility in Namibia; we quantify the epidemic-level impact by using a mathematical framework based on spatial networks. We find complex networks of risk flows dispersed risk countrywide: increasing the risk of acquiring HIV in some areas, decreasing it in others. Overall, 40% of risk was mobility-driven. Networks contained multiple risk hubs. All constituencies (administrative units) imported and exported risk, to varying degrees. A few exported very high levels of risk: their residents infected many residents of other constituencies. Notably, prevalence in the constituency exporting the most risk was below average. Large-scale networks of mobility-driven risk flows underlie generalized HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. In order to eliminate HIV, it is likely to become increasingly important to implement innovative control strategies that focus on disrupting risk flows.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23051-w

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