Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization

Anna J. Crawford (), Douglas I. Benn, Joe Todd, Jan A. Åström, Jeremy N. Bassis and Thomas Zwinger
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Anna J. Crawford: University of St Andrews
Douglas I. Benn: University of St Andrews
Joe Todd: The University of Edinburgh
Jan A. Åström: CSC – IT Center for Science
Jeremy N. Bassis: University of Michigan
Thomas Zwinger: CSC – IT Center for Science

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate ice loss from Antarctica, and according to some model predictions could potentially contribute >1 m of global mean sea level rise by 2100 at current emission rates. Regions with over-deepening basins >1 km in depth (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are particularly susceptible to this instability, as retreat could expose increasingly tall cliffs that could exceed ice stability thresholds. Here, we use a suite of high-fidelity glacier models to improve understanding of the modes through which ice cliffs can structurally fail and derive a conservative ice-cliff failure retreat rate parameterization for ice-sheet models. Our results highlight the respective roles of viscous deformation, shear-band formation, and brittle-tensile failure within marine ice-cliff instability. Calving rates increase non-linearly with cliff height, but runaway ice-cliff retreat can be inhibited by viscous flow and back force from iceberg mélange.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23070-7

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