Controlling COVID-19 via test-trace-quarantine

Cliff C. Kerr (), Dina Mistry, Robyn M. Stuart, Katherine Rosenfeld, Gregory R. Hart, Rafael C. Núñez, Jamie A. Cohen, Prashanth Selvaraj, Romesh G. Abeysuriya, Michał Jastrzębski, Lauren George, Brittany Hagedorn, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Meaghan Fagalde, Jeffrey Duchin, Michael Famulare and Daniel J. Klein
Additional contact information
Cliff C. Kerr: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Dina Mistry: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Robyn M. Stuart: University of Copenhagen
Katherine Rosenfeld: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Gregory R. Hart: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Rafael C. Núñez: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Jamie A. Cohen: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Prashanth Selvaraj: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Romesh G. Abeysuriya: Burnet Institute
Michał Jastrzębski: GitHub, Inc
Lauren George: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Brittany Hagedorn: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths: University College London
Meaghan Fagalde: Public Health – Seattle & King County
Jeffrey Duchin: Public Health – Seattle & King County
Michael Famulare: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Daniel J. Klein: Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, an open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels of mask use and schools remaining closed, we find that high but achievable levels of testing and tracing are sufficient to maintain epidemic control even under a return to full workplace and community mobility and with low vaccine coverage. The easing of mobility restrictions in June 2020 and subsequent scale-up of testing and tracing programs through September provided real-world validation of our predictions. Although we show that test-trace-quarantine can control the epidemic in both theory and practice, its success is contingent on high testing and tracing rates, high quarantine compliance, relatively short testing and tracing delays, and moderate to high mask use. Thus, in order for test-trace-quarantine to control transmission with a return to high mobility, strong performance in all aspects of the program is required.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23276-9

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