Global health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions

Yanxu Zhang (), Zhengcheng Song, Shaojian Huang, Peng Zhang, Yiming Peng, Peipei Wu, Jing Gu, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Huanxin Zhang, Shiliang Wu, Feiyue Wang, Long Chen, Shuxiao Wang and Ping Li
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Yanxu Zhang: Nanjing University
Zhengcheng Song: Nanjing University
Shaojian Huang: Nanjing University
Peng Zhang: Nanjing University
Yiming Peng: Nanjing University
Peipei Wu: Nanjing University
Jing Gu: Nanjing University
Stephanie Dutkiewicz: Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Huanxin Zhang: University of Iowa
Shiliang Wu: Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University
Feiyue Wang: Centre for Earth Observation Science, Department of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba
Long Chen: Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University
Shuxiao Wang: School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University
Ping Li: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017. Here, we report the development of a comprehensive climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk model framework for mercury and its application to project the health effects of future atmospheric emissions. Our results show that the accumulated health effects associated with mercury exposure during 2010–2050 are $19 (95% confidence interval: 4.7–54) trillion (2020 USD) realized to 2050 (3% discount rate) for the current policy scenario. Our results suggest a substantial increase in global human health cost if emission reduction actions are delayed. This comprehensive modeling approach provides a much-needed tool to help parties to evaluate the effectiveness of Hg emission controls as required by the Minamata Convention.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23391-7

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23391-7

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