Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States

Luzhao Feng, Ting Zhang, Qing Wang, Yiran Xie, Zhibin Peng, Jiandong Zheng, Ying Qin, Muli Zhang, Shengjie Lai, Dayan Wang, Zijian Feng, Zhongjie Li () and George F. Gao ()
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Luzhao Feng: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Ting Zhang: Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College
Qing Wang: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Yiran Xie: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center
Zhibin Peng: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Jiandong Zheng: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Ying Qin: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Muli Zhang: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Shengjie Lai: University of Southampton
Dayan Wang: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center
Zijian Feng: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zhongjie Li: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
George F. Gao: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019–2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019–2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011–2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%–87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%–87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%–80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019–2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23440-1

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