Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Erin E. McDuffie (), Randall V. Martin, Joseph V. Spadaro, Richard Burnett, Steven J. Smith, Patrick O’Rourke, Melanie S. Hammer, Aaron Donkelaar, Liam Bindle, Viral Shah, Lyatt Jaeglé, Gan Luo, Fangqun Yu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jintai Lin and Michael Brauer
Additional contact information
Erin E. McDuffie: Washington University in St. Louis
Randall V. Martin: Washington University in St. Louis
Joseph V. Spadaro: Spadaro Environmental Research Consultants (SERC)
Richard Burnett: University of Washington
Steven J. Smith: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Patrick O’Rourke: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Melanie S. Hammer: Washington University in St. Louis
Aaron Donkelaar: Washington University in St. Louis
Liam Bindle: Washington University in St. Louis
Viral Shah: University of Washington
Lyatt Jaeglé: University of Washington
Gan Luo: University at Albany
Fangqun Yu: University at Albany
Jamiu A. Adeniran: Peking University
Jintai Lin: Peking University
Michael Brauer: University of Washington

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23853-y

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