Emission impacts of China’s solid waste import ban and COVID-19 in the copper supply chain

John Ryter, Xinkai Fu, Karan Bhuwalka, Richard Roth and Elsa A. Olivetti ()
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John Ryter: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Xinkai Fu: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Karan Bhuwalka: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard Roth: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Elsa A. Olivetti: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of supply chain disruptions and large-scale economic crises, also prompting environmentally protective local policies. Here we use econometric time series analysis, inventory-driven price formation, dynamic material flow analysis, and life cycle assessment to model each copper supply chain actor’s response to China’s solid waste import ban and the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrate that the economic changes associated with China’s solid waste import ban increase primary refining within China, offsetting the environmental benefits of decreased copper scrap refining and generating a cumulative increase in CO2-equivalent emissions of up to 13 Mt by 2040. Increasing China’s refined copper imports reverses this trend, decreasing CO2e emissions in China (up to 180 Mt by 2040) and globally (up to 20 Mt). We test sensitivity to supply chain disruptions using GDP, mining, and refining shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, showing the results translate onto disruption effects.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23874-7

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