Climate pacing of millennial sea-level change variability in the central and western Mediterranean

Matteo Vacchi (), Kristen M. Joyse, Robert Kopp (), Nick Marriner, David Kaniewski and Alessio Rovere
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Matteo Vacchi: Università di Pisa
Kristen M. Joyse: Rutgers University
Nick Marriner: CNRS, ThéMA, Université de Franche-Comté, UMR 6049, MSHE Ledoux
David Kaniewski: TRACES, UMR 5608 CNRS, Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès, Maison de la Recherche
Alessio Rovere: University of Bremen

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Future warming in the Mediterranean is expected to significantly exceed global values with unpredictable implications on the sea-level rise rates in the coming decades. Here, we apply an empirical-Bayesian spatio-temporal statistical model to a dataset of 401 sea-level index points from the central and western Mediterranean and reconstruct rates of sea-level change for the past 10,000 years. We demonstrate that the mean rates of Mediterranean industrial-era sea-level rise have been significantly faster than any other period since ~4000 years ago. We further highlight a previously unrecognized variability in Mediterranean sea-level change rates. In the Common Era, this variability correlates with the occurrence of major regional-scale cooling/warming episodes. Our data show a sea-level stabilization during the Late Antique Little Ice Age cold event, which interrupted a general rising trend of ~0.45 mm a−1 that characterized the warming episodes of the Common Era. By contrast, the Little Ice Age cold event had only minor regional effects on Mediterranean sea-level change rates.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24250-1

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