SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics and transmission from community-wide serological testing in the Italian municipality of Vo’

Ilaria Dorigatti (), Enrico Lavezzo (), Laura Manuto, Constanze Ciavarella, Monia Pacenti, Caterina Boldrin, Margherita Cattai, Francesca Saluzzo, Elisa Franchin, Claudia Del Vecchio, Federico Caldart, Gioele Castelli, Michele Nicoletti, Eleonora Nieddu, Elisa Salvadoretti, Beatrice Labella, Ludovico Fava, Simone Guglielmo, Mariateresa Fascina, Marco Grazioli, Gualtiero Alvisi, Maria Cristina Vanuzzo, Tiziano Zupo, Reginetta Calandrin, Vittoria Lisi, Lucia Rossi, Ignazio Castagliuolo, Stefano Merigliano, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Mario Plebani, Andrea Padoan, Alessandra R. Brazzale, Stefano Toppo, Neil M. Ferguson, Christl A. Donnelly and Andrea Crisanti ()
Additional contact information
Ilaria Dorigatti: Imperial College London
Enrico Lavezzo: University of Padova
Laura Manuto: University of Padova
Constanze Ciavarella: Imperial College London
Monia Pacenti: Azienda Ospedale Padova
Caterina Boldrin: Azienda Ospedale Padova
Margherita Cattai: Azienda Ospedale Padova
Francesca Saluzzo: University of Padova
Elisa Franchin: University of Padova
Claudia Del Vecchio: University of Padova
Federico Caldart: University of Padova
Gioele Castelli: University of Padova
Michele Nicoletti: University of Padova
Eleonora Nieddu: University of Padova
Elisa Salvadoretti: University of Padova
Beatrice Labella: University of Padova
Ludovico Fava: University of Padova
Simone Guglielmo: University of Padova
Mariateresa Fascina: University of Padova
Marco Grazioli: University of Padova
Gualtiero Alvisi: University of Padova
Maria Cristina Vanuzzo: Azienda Ospedale Padova
Tiziano Zupo: Azienda Ospedale Padova
Reginetta Calandrin: Azienda Ospedale Padova
Vittoria Lisi: Azienda Ospedale Padova
Lucia Rossi: Azienda Ospedale Padova
Ignazio Castagliuolo: University of Padova
Stefano Merigliano: University of Padova
H. Juliette T. Unwin: Imperial College London
Mario Plebani: University of Padova
Andrea Padoan: University of Padova
Alessandra R. Brazzale: University of Padova
Stefano Toppo: University of Padova
Neil M. Ferguson: Imperial College London
Christl A. Donnelly: Imperial College London
Andrea Crisanti: University of Padova

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract In February and March 2020, two mass swab testing campaigns were conducted in Vo’, Italy. In May 2020, we tested 86% of the Vo’ population with three immuno-assays detecting antibodies against the spike and nucleocapsid antigens, a neutralisation assay and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Subjects testing positive to PCR in February/March or a serological assay in May were tested again in November. Here we report on the results of the analysis of the May and November surveys. We estimate a seroprevalence of 3.5% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 2.8–4.3%) in May. In November, 98.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 93.7–100.0%) of sera which tested positive in May still reacted against at least one antigen; 18.6% (95% CI: 11.0–28.5%) showed an increase of antibody or neutralisation reactivity from May. Analysis of the serostatus of the members of 1,118 households indicates a 26.0% (95% CrI: 17.2–36.9%) Susceptible-Infectious Transmission Probability. Contact tracing had limited impact on epidemic suppression.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24622-7

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