Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change

Sofia Ribeiro (), Audrey Limoges, Guillaume Massé, Kasper L. Johansen, William Colgan, Kaarina Weckström, Rebecca Jackson, Eleanor Georgiadis, Naja Mikkelsen, Antoon Kuijpers, Jesper Olsen, Steffen M. Olsen, Martin Nissen, Thorbjørn J. Andersen, Astrid Strunk, Sebastian Wetterich, Jari Syväranta, Andrew C. G. Henderson, Helen Mackay, Sami Taipale, Erik Jeppesen, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Xavier Crosta, Jacques Giraudeau, Simone Wengrat, Mark Nuttall, Bjarne Grønnow, Anders Mosbech and Thomas A. Davidson ()
Additional contact information
Sofia Ribeiro: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Audrey Limoges: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Guillaume Massé: Université Laval, CNRS, UMI 3376 TAKUVIK
Kasper L. Johansen: Aarhus University
William Colgan: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Kaarina Weckström: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Rebecca Jackson: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Eleanor Georgiadis: Université Laval, CNRS, UMI 3376 TAKUVIK
Naja Mikkelsen: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Antoon Kuijpers: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Jesper Olsen: Aarhus University
Steffen M. Olsen: Danish Meteorological Institute
Martin Nissen: Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency
Thorbjørn J. Andersen: University of Copenhagen
Astrid Strunk: Aarhus University
Sebastian Wetterich: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research
Jari Syväranta: University of Eastern Finland
Andrew C. G. Henderson: Newcastle University
Helen Mackay: Newcastle University
Sami Taipale: University of Jyväskylä
Erik Jeppesen: Aarhus University
Nicolaj K. Larsen: Aarhus University
Xavier Crosta: Université de Bordeaux, CNRS, UMR 5805 EPOC
Jacques Giraudeau: Université de Bordeaux, CNRS, UMR 5805 EPOC
Simone Wengrat: University of Konstanz
Mark Nuttall: Pinngortitaleriffik/Greenland Institute for Natural Resources
Bjarne Grønnow: National Museum of Denmark
Anders Mosbech: Aarhus University
Thomas A. Davidson: Aarhus University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world’s northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400–4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200–1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24742-0

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