COVID-19 spread, detection, and dynamics in Bogota, Colombia

Rachid Laajaj, Camilo Los Rios, Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri, Danilo Aristizabal, Eduardo Behrentz, Raquel Bernal, Giancarlo Buitrago, Zulma Cucunubá, Fernando Hoz, Alejandro Gaviria, Luis Jorge Hernández, Leonardo León, Diane Moyano, Elkin Osorio, Andrea Ramírez Varela, Silvia Restrepo, Rodrigo Rodriguez, Norbert Schady, Martha Vives and Duncan Webb
Additional contact information
Camilo Los Rios: Inter-American Development Bank
Danilo Aristizabal: University of Los Andes
Eduardo Behrentz: University of Los Andes
Raquel Bernal: University of Los Andes
Giancarlo Buitrago: Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Zulma Cucunubá: Imperial College London
Fernando Hoz: Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Luis Jorge Hernández: University of Los Andes
Leonardo León: University of Los Andes
Diane Moyano: Secretaria de Salud de Bogota
Elkin Osorio: Secretaria de Salud de Bogota
Andrea Ramírez Varela: University of Los Andes
Silvia Restrepo: University of Los Andes
Rodrigo Rodriguez: Secretaria de Salud de Bogota
Martha Vives: University of Los Andes
Duncan Webb: Paris School of Economics

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Latin America has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic but estimations of rates of infections are very limited and lack the level of detail required to guide policy decisions. We implemented a COVID-19 sentinel surveillance study with 59,770 RT-PCR tests on mostly asymptomatic individuals and combine this data with administrative records on all detected cases to capture the spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bogota from June 2020 to early March 2021. We describe various features of the pandemic that appear to be specific to a middle income countries. We find that, by March 2021, slightly more than half of the population in Bogota has been infected, despite only a small fraction of this population being detected. The initial buildup of immunity contributed to the containment of the pandemic in the first and second waves. We also show that the share of the population infected by March 2021 varies widely by occupation, socio-economic stratum, and location. This, in turn, has affected the dynamics of the spread with different groups being infected in the two waves.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25038-z

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