Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change

Adrien Deroubaix (), Inga Labuhn, Marie Camredon, Benjamin Gaubert, Paul-Arthur Monerie, Max Popp, Johanna Ramarohetra, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Levi G. Silvers and Guillaume Siour
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Adrien Deroubaix: École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, IPSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS
Inga Labuhn: University of Bremen
Marie Camredon: Université Paris-Est Créteil, CNRS, Université de Paris, IPSL
Benjamin Gaubert: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Paul-Arthur Monerie: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading
Max Popp: École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, IPSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS
Johanna Ramarohetra: Independent researcher
Yohan Ruprich-Robert: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, BSC
Levi G. Silvers: School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York at Stony Brook
Guillaume Siour: Université Paris-Est Créteil, CNRS, Université de Paris, IPSL

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Using proxies of climate-driven energy demand based on the heating and cooling Degree-Days methodology applied to thirty global climate model simulations, we show that, over all continental areas, the climate-driven energy demand trends for heating and cooling were weak, changing by less than 10% from 1950 to 1990, but become stronger from 1990 to 2030, changing by more than 10%. With the multi-model mean, the increasing trends in cooling energy demand are more pronounced than the decreasing trends in heating. The changes in cooling, however, are highly variable depending on individual simulations, ranging from a few to several hundred percent in most of the densely populated mid-latitude areas. This work presents an example of the challenges that accompany future energy demand quantification as a result of the uncertainty in the projected climate.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25504-8

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