Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence

Emma L. Davis (), Tim C. D. Lucas, Anna Borlase, Timothy M. Pollington, Sam Abbott, Diepreye Ayabina, Thomas Crellen, Joel Hellewell, Li Pi, Graham F. Medley, T. Déirdre Hollingsworth and Petra Klepac
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Emma L. Davis: University of Oxford
Tim C. D. Lucas: University of Oxford
Anna Borlase: University of Oxford
Timothy M. Pollington: University of Oxford
Sam Abbott: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Diepreye Ayabina: University of Oxford
Thomas Crellen: University of Oxford
Joel Hellewell: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Li Pi: University of Oxford
Graham F. Medley: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
T. Déirdre Hollingsworth: University of Oxford
Petra Klepac: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5

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