Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe

Mrinank Sharma (), Sören Mindermann (), Charlie Rogers-Smith, Gavin Leech, Benedict Snodin, Janvi Ahuja, Jonas B. Sandbrink, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, George Altman, Gurpreet Dhaliwal, Lukas Finnveden, Alexander John Norman, Sebastian B. Oehm, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Laurence Aitchison, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Thomas Mellan, Jan Kulveit, Leonid Chindelevitch, Seth Flaxman, Yarin Gal, Swapnil Mishra (), Samir Bhatt () and Jan Markus Brauner ()
Additional contact information
Mrinank Sharma: University of Oxford
Sören Mindermann: University of Oxford
Charlie Rogers-Smith: University of Oxford
Gavin Leech: University of Bristol
Benedict Snodin: University of Oxford
Janvi Ahuja: University of Oxford
Jonas B. Sandbrink: University of Oxford
Joshua Teperowski Monrad: University of Oxford
George Altman: Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust
Gurpreet Dhaliwal: The Francis Crick Institute
Lukas Finnveden: University of Oxford
Alexander John Norman: University of Oxford
Sebastian B. Oehm: Medical Research Council Laboratory of Molecular Biology
Julia Fabienne Sandkühler: University of Essen
Laurence Aitchison: University of Bristol
Tomáš Gavenčiak: Independent scholar
Thomas Mellan: Imperial College London
Jan Kulveit: University of Oxford
Leonid Chindelevitch: Imperial College London
Seth Flaxman: Imperial College London
Yarin Gal: University of Oxford
Swapnil Mishra: Imperial College London
Samir Bhatt: Imperial College London
Jan Markus Brauner: University of Oxford

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe’s second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours—such as distancing—which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe’s third wave.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4

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