Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions

Julianne DeAngelo (), Inês Azevedo, John Bistline, Leon Clarke, Gunnar Luderer, Edward Byers and Steven J. Davis
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Julianne DeAngelo: University of California, Irvine
Inês Azevedo: Stanford University
Leon Clarke: University of Maryland
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Edward Byers: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Steven J. Davis: University of California, Irvine

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world. Although many studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways, the common features and tradeoffs of energy systems across global scenarios at the point of net-zero CO2 emissions have not yet been evaluated. Here, we examine the energy systems of 177 net-zero scenarios and discuss their long-term technological and regional characteristics in the context of current energy policies. We find that, on average, renewable energy sources account for 60% of primary energy at net-zero (compared to ∼14% today), with slightly less than half of that renewable energy derived from biomass. Meanwhile, electricity makes up approximately half of final energy consumed (compared to ∼20% today), highlighting the extent to which solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels remain prevalent in the scenarios even when emissions reach net-zero. Finally, residual emissions and offsetting negative emissions are not evenly distributed across world regions, which may have important implications for negotiations on burden-sharing, human development, and equity.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26356-y

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