Altered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020

Julia Noë (), Karl-Heinz Erb, Sarah Matej, Andreas Magerl, Manan Bhan and Simone Gingrich
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Julia Noë: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Karl-Heinz Erb: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Sarah Matej: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Andreas Magerl: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Manan Bhan: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Simone Gingrich: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Understanding the carbon (C) balance in global forest is key for climate-change mitigation. However, land use and environmental drivers affecting global forest C fluxes remain poorly quantified. Here we show, following a counterfactual modelling approach based on global Forest Resource Assessments, that in 1990–2020 deforestation is the main driver of forest C emissions, partly counteracted by increased forest growth rates under altered conditions: In the hypothetical absence of changes in forest (i) area, (ii) harvest or (iii) burnt area, global forest biomass would reverse from an actual cumulative net C source of c. 0.74 GtC to a net C sink of 26.9, 4.9 and 0.63 GtC, respectively. In contrast, (iv) without growth rate changes, cumulative emissions would be 7.4 GtC, i.e., 10 times higher. Because this sink function may be discontinued in the future due to climate-change, ending deforestation and lowering wood harvest emerge here as key climate-change mitigation strategies.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26398-2

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