Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Yang Ou, Christopher Roney, Jameel Alsalam, Katherine Calvin, Jared Creason, Jae Edmonds, Allen A. Fawcett, Page Kyle, Kanishka Narayan, Patrick O’Rourke, Pralit Patel, Shaun Ragnauth, Steven J. Smith and Haewon McJeon ()
Additional contact information
Yang Ou: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Christopher Roney: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jameel Alsalam: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Katherine Calvin: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jared Creason: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Jae Edmonds: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Allen A. Fawcett: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Page Kyle: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Kanishka Narayan: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Patrick O’Rourke: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Pralit Patel: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Shaun Ragnauth: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Steven J. Smith: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Haewon McJeon: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z

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