Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa

Krishna P. Reddy (), Kieran P. Fitzmaurice, Justine A. Scott, Guy Harling, Richard J. Lessells, Christopher Panella, Fatma M. Shebl, Kenneth A. Freedberg and Mark J. Siedner
Additional contact information
Krishna P. Reddy: Massachusetts General Hospital
Kieran P. Fitzmaurice: Massachusetts General Hospital
Justine A. Scott: Massachusetts General Hospital
Guy Harling: Africa Health Research Institute
Richard J. Lessells: University of KwaZulu-Natal
Christopher Panella: Massachusetts General Hospital
Fatma M. Shebl: Massachusetts General Hospital
Kenneth A. Freedberg: Massachusetts General Hospital
Mark J. Siedner: Massachusetts General Hospital

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26557-5 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26557-5

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26557-5

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().