Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave

James M. Trauer (), Michael J. Lydeamore, Gregory W. Dalton, David Pilcher, Michael T. Meehan, Emma S. McBryde, Allen C. Cheng, Brett Sutton and Romain Ragonnet
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James M. Trauer: Monash University
Michael J. Lydeamore: Monash University
Gregory W. Dalton: Government of Victoria
David Pilcher: Monash University
Michael T. Meehan: James Cook University
Emma S. McBryde: James Cook University
Allen C. Cheng: Monash University
Brett Sutton: Government of Victoria
Romain Ragonnet: Monash University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract During 2020, Victoria was the Australian state hardest hit by COVID-19, but was successful in controlling its second wave through aggressive policy interventions. We calibrated a detailed compartmental model of Victoria’s second wave to multiple geographically-structured epidemic time-series indicators. We achieved a good fit overall and for individual health services through a combination of time-varying processes, including case detection, population mobility, school closures, physical distancing and face covering usage. Estimates of the risk of death in those aged ≥75 and of hospitalisation were higher than international estimates, reflecting concentration of cases in high-risk settings. We estimated significant effects for each of the calibrated time-varying processes, with estimates for the individual-level effect of physical distancing of 37.4% (95%CrI 7.2−56.4%) and of face coverings of 45.9% (95%CrI 32.9−55.6%). That the multi-faceted interventions led to the dramatic reversal in the epidemic trajectory is supported by our results, with face coverings likely particularly important.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26558-4

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