Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies

Filippo Pavanello, Enrica Cian (), Marinella Davide, Malcolm Mistry, Talita Cruz, Paula Bezerra, Dattakiran Jagu, Sebastian Renner, Roberto Schaeffer and André F. P. Lucena
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Enrica Cian: Fondazione CMCC, RFF-CMCC EIEE
Malcolm Mistry: Fondazione CMCC, RFF-CMCC EIEE
Talita Cruz: Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics, Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (CENERGIA/PPE/COPPE/UFRJ)
Paula Bezerra: Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics, Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (CENERGIA/PPE/COPPE/UFRJ)
Dattakiran Jagu: Fondazione CMCC, RFF-CMCC EIEE
Sebastian Renner: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
Roberto Schaeffer: Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics, Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (CENERGIA/PPE/COPPE/UFRJ)
André F. P. Lucena: Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics, Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (CENERGIA/PPE/COPPE/UFRJ)

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Increasing temperatures will make space cooling a necessity for maintain comfort and protecting human health, and rising income levels will allow more people to purchase and run air conditioners. Here we show that, in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico income and humidity-adjusted temperature are common determinants for adopting air-conditioning, but their relative contribution varies in relation to household characteristics. Adoption rates are higher among households living in higher quality dwellings in urban areas, and among those with higher levels of education. Air-conditioning is unevenly distributed across income levels, making evident the existence of a disparity in access to cooling devices. Although the adoption of air-conditioning could increase between twofold and sixteen-fold by 2040, from 64 to 100 million families with access to electricity will not be able to adequately satisfy their demand for thermal comfort. The need to sustain electricity expenditure in response to higher temperatures can also create unequal opportunities to adapt.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26592-2

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