Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Heleen L. Soest (), Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C. Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck and Detlef P. Vuuren
Additional contact information
Heleen L. Soest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Lara Aleluia Reis: RFF‐CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Luiz Bernardo Baptista: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Christoph Bertram: Member of the Leibniz Association
Michel Elzen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Panagiotis Fragkos: E3Modelling S.A.
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Shinichiro Fujimori: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Neil Grant: Imperial College London
Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Gokul Iyer: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland
Alexandre C. Köberle: Imperial College London
Elmar Kriegler: Member of the Leibniz Association
Aman Malik: Member of the Leibniz Association
Shivika Mittal: Imperial College London
Ken Oshiro: Kyoto University
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Mark Roelfsema: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Roberto Schaeffer: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Diego Silva Herran: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Massimo Tavoni: RFF‐CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Gamze Unlu: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Toon Vandyck: Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z

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