Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control

Alicia N. M. Kraay (), Kristin N. Nelson, Conan Y. Zhao, David Demory, Joshua S. Weitz and Benjamin A. Lopman
Additional contact information
Alicia N. M. Kraay: Emory University
Kristin N. Nelson: Emory University
Conan Y. Zhao: Georgia Institute of Technology
David Demory: Georgia Institute of Technology
Joshua S. Weitz: Georgia Institute of Technology
Benjamin A. Lopman: Emory University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Serological testing remains a passive component of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a transmission model, we examine how serological testing could have enabled seropositive individuals to increase their relative levels of social interaction while offsetting transmission risks. We simulate widespread serological testing in New York City, South Florida, and Washington Puget Sound and assume seropositive individuals partially restore their social contacts. Compared to no intervention, our model suggests that widespread serological testing starting in late 2020 would have averted approximately 3300 deaths in New York City, 1400 deaths in South Florida and 11,000 deaths in Washington State by June 2021. In all sites, serological testing blunted subsequent waves of transmission. Findings demonstrate the potential benefit of widespread serological testing, had it been implemented in the pre-vaccine era, and remain relevant now amid the potential for emergence of new variants.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26774-y Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26774-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26774-y

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().