Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic

Meng-Jie Geng, Hai-Yang Zhang, Lin-Jie Yu, Chen-Long Lv, Tao Wang, Tian-Le Che, Qiang Xu, Bao-Gui Jiang, Jin-Jin Chen, Simon I. Hay, Zhong-Jie Li, George F. Gao, Li-Ping Wang (), Yang Yang (), Li-Qun Fang () and Wei Liu ()
Additional contact information
Meng-Jie Geng: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Hai-Yang Zhang: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Lin-Jie Yu: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Chen-Long Lv: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Tao Wang: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Tian-Le Che: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Qiang Xu: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Bao-Gui Jiang: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Jin-Jin Chen: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Simon I. Hay: University of Washington
Zhong-Jie Li: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
George F. Gao: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Li-Ping Wang: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Yang Yang: College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida
Li-Qun Fang: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Wei Liu: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27292-7

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