Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

Luke J. Harrington (), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Friederike E. L. Otto
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Luke J. Harrington: Victoria University of Wellington
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: Climate Analytics
Friederike E. L. Otto: Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27491-2

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2

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