The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus

Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Alessia Mammone, Flavia Riccardo, Piero Poletti, Filippo Trentini, Mattia Manica, Andrea Siddu, Antonino Bella, Paola Stefanelli, Patrizio Pezzotti, Marco Ajelli, Silvio Brusaferro, Giovanni Rezza and Stefano Merler ()
Additional contact information
Valentina Marziano: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Giorgio Guzzetta: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Alessia Mammone: Ministry of Health
Flavia Riccardo: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Piero Poletti: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Filippo Trentini: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Mattia Manica: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Andrea Siddu: Ministry of Health
Antonino Bella: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Paola Stefanelli: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Patrizio Pezzotti: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Marco Ajelli: Indiana University School of Public Health
Silvio Brusaferro: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Giovanni Rezza: Ministry of Health
Stefano Merler: Bruno Kessler Foundation

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15–47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27532-w

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