Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19

Quan-Hui Liu, Juanjuan Zhang, Cheng Peng, Maria Litvinova, Shudong Huang, Piero Poletti, Filippo Trentini, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano, Tao Zhou, Cecile Viboud, Ana I. Bento, Jiancheng Lv, Alessandro Vespignani, Stefano Merler, Hongjie Yu () and Marco Ajelli ()
Additional contact information
Quan-Hui Liu: Sichuan University
Juanjuan Zhang: Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education
Cheng Peng: Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education
Maria Litvinova: Indiana University School of Public Health
Shudong Huang: Sichuan University
Piero Poletti: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Filippo Trentini: Bocconi University
Giorgio Guzzetta: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Valentina Marziano: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Tao Zhou: University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
Cecile Viboud: National Institutes of Health
Ana I. Bento: Indiana University School of Public Health
Jiancheng Lv: Sichuan University
Alessandro Vespignani: Northeastern University
Stefano Merler: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Hongjie Yu: Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education
Marco Ajelli: Indiana University School of Public Health

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light on this controversy, we developed a data-driven computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We found that by reactively closing classes based on syndromic surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 infections are reduced by no more than 17.3% (95%CI: 8.0–26.8%), due to the low probability of timely identification of infections in the young population. We thus investigated an alternative triggering mechanism based on repeated screening of students using antigen tests. Depending on the contribution of schools to transmission, this strategy can greatly reduce COVID-19 burden even when school contribution to transmission and immunity in the population is low. Moving forward, the adoption of antigen-based screenings in schools could be instrumental to limit COVID-19 burden while vaccines continue to be rolled out.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27939-5

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