The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities

M. Santos-Vega, P. P. Martinez, K. G. Vaishnav, V. Kohli, V. Desai, M. J. Bouma and M. Pascual ()
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M. Santos-Vega: University of Chicago
P. P. Martinez: University of Illinois at Urbana, Champaign
K. G. Vaishnav: Surat Municipal Corporation
V. Kohli: Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation
V. Desai: (UHCRCE)
M. J. Bouma: ISGlobal
M. Pascual: University of Chicago

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The rapid pace of urbanization makes it imperative that we better understand the influence of climate forcing on urban malaria transmission. Despite extensive study of temperature effects in vector-borne infections in general, consideration of relative humidity remains limited. With process-based dynamical models informed by almost two decades of monthly surveillance data, we address the role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of epidemic malaria in two semi-arid cities of India. We show a strong and significant effect of humidity during the pre-transmission season on malaria burden in coastal Surat and more arid inland Ahmedabad. Simulations of the climate-driven transmission model with the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates) of the parameters retrospectively capture the observed variability of disease incidence, and also prospectively predict that of ‘out-of-fit’ cases in more recent years, with high accuracy. Our findings indicate that relative humidity is a critical factor in the spread of urban malaria and potentially other vector-borne epidemics, and that climate change and lack of hydrological planning in cities might jeopardize malaria elimination efforts.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28145-7

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