Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries

Garyfallos Konstantinoudis (), Michela Cameletti, Virgilio Gómez-Rubio, Inmaculada León Gómez, Monica Pirani, Gianluca Baio, Amparo Larrauri, Julien Riou, Matthias Egger, Paolo Vineis and Marta Blangiardo
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Garyfallos Konstantinoudis: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health
Michela Cameletti: University of Bergamo
Virgilio Gómez-Rubio: Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
Inmaculada León Gómez: Institute of Health Carlos III
Monica Pirani: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health
Gianluca Baio: University College London
Amparo Larrauri: Institute of Health Carlos III
Julien Riou: University of Bern
Matthias Egger: University of Bern
Paolo Vineis: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health
Marta Blangiardo: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015–2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15–20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the first stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.

Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28157-3

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28157-3

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