Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics

Victoria Romeo-Aznar, Laís Picinini Freitas, Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz, Aaron A. King and Mercedes Pascual ()
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Victoria Romeo-Aznar: University of Chicago
Laís Picinini Freitas: Postgraduate Program of Epidemiology in Public Health - Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz: Programa de Computação Científica - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
Aaron A. King: University of Michigan
Mercedes Pascual: University of Chicago

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28231-w

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