Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations

Thomas Rackow (), Sergey Danilov, Helge F. Goessling, Hartmut H. Hellmer, Dmitry V. Sein, Tido Semmler, Dmitry Sidorenko and Thomas Jung
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Thomas Rackow: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Sergey Danilov: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Helge F. Goessling: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Hartmut H. Hellmer: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Dmitry V. Sein: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Tido Semmler: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Dmitry Sidorenko: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Thomas Jung: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Despite global warming and Arctic sea-ice loss, on average the Antarctic sea-ice extent has not declined since 1979 when satellite data became available. In contrast, climate model simulations tend to exhibit strong negative sea-ice trends for the same period. This Antarctic sea-ice paradox leads to low confidence in 21st-century sea-ice projections. Here we present multi-resolution climate change projections that account for Southern Ocean mesoscale eddies. The high-resolution configuration simulates stable September Antarctic sea-ice extent that is not projected to decline until the mid-21st century. We argue that one reason for this finding is a more realistic ocean circulation that increases the equatorward heat transport response to global warming. As a result, the ocean becomes more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming around Antarctica and hence at delaying sea-ice decline. Our study suggests that explicitly simulating Southern Ocean eddies is necessary for providing Antarctic sea-ice projections with higher confidence.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28259-y

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