Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863

Jennifer S. Walker (), Robert Kopp (), Christopher M. Little and Benjamin P. Horton
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Jennifer S. Walker: Rutgers University
Christopher M. Little: Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc
Benjamin P. Horton: Nanyang Technological University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability. Yet a range of estimates of the timing persists both globally and regionally. Here, we use a global database of proxy sea-level records of the Common Era (0–2000 CE) and show that globally, it is very likely that rates of sea-level rise emerged above pre-industrial rates by 1863 CE (P = 0.9; range of 1825 [P = 0.66] to 1873 CE [P = 0.95]), which is similar in timing to evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt. The time of emergence in the North Atlantic reveals a distinct spatial pattern, appearing earliest in the mid-Atlantic region (1872–1894 CE) and later in Canada and Europe (1930–1964 CE). Regional and local sea-level changes occurring over different time periods drive the spatial pattern in emergence, suggesting regional processes underlie centennial-timescale sea-level variability over the Common Era.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28564-6

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