Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030

Rong Tang, Jing Zhao, Yifan Liu, Xin Huang, Yanxu Zhang, Derong Zhou, Aijun Ding, Chris P. Nielsen and Haikun Wang ()
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Rong Tang: Nanjing University
Jing Zhao: Nanjing University
Yifan Liu: Nanjing University
Xin Huang: Nanjing University
Yanxu Zhang: Nanjing University
Derong Zhou: Nanjing University
Aijun Ding: Nanjing University
Chris P. Nielsen: Harvard University
Haikun Wang: Nanjing University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions of climate policies. We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C target could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM2.5 attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Under the 2 °C target, carbon mitigation costs could be more than offset by health co-benefits in 2050, bringing a net benefit of $393–$3,017 billion (in 2017 USD value). This study not only provides insight into potential health benefits of an early peak in China, but also suggests that similar benefits may result from more ambitious climate targets in other countries.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28672-3

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