Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools

Trystan Leng (), Edward M. Hill, Alex Holmes, Emma Southall, Robin N. Thompson, Michael J. Tildesley, Matt J. Keeling and Louise Dyson
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Trystan Leng: University of Warwick
Edward M. Hill: University of Warwick
Alex Holmes: University of Warwick
Emma Southall: University of Warwick
Robin N. Thompson: University of Warwick
Michael J. Tildesley: University of Warwick
Matt J. Keeling: University of Warwick
Louise Dyson: University of Warwick

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract A range of measures have been implemented to control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, including the self-isolation of close contacts and twice weekly mass testing of secondary school pupils using lateral flow device tests (LFTs). Despite reducing transmission, isolating close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively impacting pupils. To quantify pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of implemented control measures, we fit a stochastic individual-based model of secondary school infection to both swab testing data and secondary school absences data from England, and then simulate outbreaks from 31st August 2020 until 23rd May 2021. We find that the pupil-to-pupil reproduction number, Rschool, has remained below 1 on average across the study period, and that twice weekly mass testing using LFTs has helped to control pupil-to-pupil transmission. We also explore the potential benefits of alternative containment strategies, finding that a strategy of repeat testing of close contacts rather than isolation, alongside mass testing, substantially reduces absences with only a marginal increase in pupil-to-pupil transmission.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28731-9

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