Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue

Feng Cheng (), Carmala Garzione, Xiangzhong Li, Ulrich Salzmann, Florian Schwarz, Alan M. Haywood, Julia Tindall, Junsheng Nie, Lin Li, Lin Wang, Benjamin W. Abbott, Ben Elliott, Weiguo Liu, Deepshikha Upadhyay, Alexandrea Arnold and Aradhna Tripati
Additional contact information
Feng Cheng: Peking University
Carmala Garzione: University of Rochester
Xiangzhong Li: Yunnan University
Ulrich Salzmann: Northumbria University
Florian Schwarz: Northumbria University
Alan M. Haywood: University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane
Julia Tindall: University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane
Junsheng Nie: Lanzhou University
Lin Li: University of Arizona
Lin Wang: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Benjamin W. Abbott: Brigham Young University
Ben Elliott: University of California
Weiguo Liu: Chinese Academy of Science
Deepshikha Upadhyay: University of California
Alexandrea Arnold: University of California
Aradhna Tripati: University of California

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Estimates of the permafrost-climate feedback vary in magnitude and sign, partly because permafrost carbon stability in warmer-than-present conditions is not well constrained. Here we use a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region on the Earth, to constrain past and future changes in permafrost carbon storage. Clumped isotope-temperatures (Δ47-T) indicate warmer MAAT (~1.2 °C) prior to 2.7 Ma, and support a permafrost-free environment on the northern Tibetan Plateau in a warmer-than-present climate. Δ47-T indicate ~8.1 °C cooling from 2.7 Ma, coincident with Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification. Combined with climate models and global permafrost distribution, these results indicate, under conditions similar to mid-Pliocene Warm period (3.3–3.0 Ma), ~60% of alpine permafrost containing ~85 petagrams of carbon may be vulnerable to thawing compared to ~20% of circumarctic permafrost. This estimate highlights ~25% of permafrost carbon and the permafrost-climate feedback could originate in alpine areas.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29011-2

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