Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

William M. Hammond (), A. Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Henry D. Adams, Tamir Klein, Rosana López, Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero, Henrik Hartmann, David D. Breshears and Craig D. Allen
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William M. Hammond: University of Florida
A. Park Williams: University of California, Los Angeles
John T. Abatzoglou: University of California
Henry D. Adams: Washington State University
Tamir Klein: Weizmann Institute of Science
Rosana López: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero: Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo
Henrik Hartmann: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
David D. Breshears: University of Arizona
Craig D. Allen: University of New Mexico

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29289-2

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