Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity

Guangdong Li (), Chuanglin Fang (), Yingjie Li, Zhenbo Wang, Siao Sun, Sanwei He, Wei Qi, Chao Bao, Haitao Ma, Yupeng Fan, Yuxue Feng and Xiaoping Liu ()
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Guangdong Li: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Chuanglin Fang: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Yingjie Li: Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Environmental Science and Policy Program, Michigan State University
Zhenbo Wang: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Siao Sun: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Sanwei He: School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
Wei Qi: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Chao Bao: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Haitao Ma: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Yupeng Fan: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Yuxue Feng: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Xiaoping Liu: Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Rapid urban expansion has profound impacts on global biodiversity through habitat conversion, degradation, fragmentation, and species extinction. However, how future urban expansion will affect global biodiversity needs to be better understood. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap by combining spatially explicit projections of urban expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with datasets on habitat and terrestrial biodiversity (amphibians, mammals, and birds). Overall, future urban expansion will lead to 11–33 million hectares of natural habitat loss by 2100 under the SSP scenarios and will disproportionately cause large natural habitat fragmentation. The urban expansion within the current key biodiversity priority areas is projected to be higher (e.g., 37–44% higher in the WWF’s Global 200) than the global average. Moreover, the urban land conversion will reduce local within-site species richness by 34% and species abundance by 52% per 1 km grid cell, and 7–9 species may be lost per 10 km cell. Our study suggests an urgent need to develop a sustainable urban development pathway to balance urban expansion and biodiversity conservation.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29324-2

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