Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

Colin J. Carlson (), Rita Colwell, Mohammad Sharif Hossain, Mohammed Mofizur Rahman, Alan Robock, Sadie J. Ryan, Mohammad Shafiul Alam and Christopher H. Trisos ()
Additional contact information
Colin J. Carlson: Georgetown University Medical Center
Rita Colwell: University of Maryland, College Park
Mohammad Sharif Hossain: Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b)
Mohammed Mofizur Rahman: Cologne University of Applied Sciences
Alan Robock: Rutgers University
Sadie J. Ryan: University of Florida
Mohammad Shafiul Alam: Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b)
Christopher H. Trisos: University of Cape Town

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29613-w

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