Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

Liam D. Bailey (), Martijn Pol, Frank Adriaensen, Aneta Arct, Emilio Barba, Paul E. Bellamy, Suzanne Bonamour, Jean-Charles Bouvier, Malcolm D. Burgess, Anne Charmantier, Camillo Cusimano, Blandine Doligez, Szymon M. Drobniak, Anna Dubiec, Marcel Eens, Tapio Eeva, Peter N. Ferns, Anne E. Goodenough, Ian R. Hartley, Shelley A. Hinsley, Elena Ivankina, Rimvydas Juškaitis, Bart Kempenaers, Anvar B. Kerimov, Claire Lavigne, Agu Leivits, Mark C. Mainwaring, Erik Matthysen, Jan-Åke Nilsson, Markku Orell, Seppo Rytkönen, Juan Carlos Senar, Ben C. Sheldon, Alberto Sorace, Martyn J. Stenning, János Török, Kees Oers, Emma Vatka, Stefan J. G. Vriend and Marcel E. Visser
Additional contact information
Liam D. Bailey: Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)
Martijn Pol: Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)
Frank Adriaensen: University of Antwerp
Aneta Arct: Polish Academy of Sciences
Emilio Barba: University of Valencia
Paul E. Bellamy: The Lodge
Suzanne Bonamour: Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle
Jean-Charles Bouvier: Plantes et Systèmes de culture Horticoles
Malcolm D. Burgess: The Lodge
Anne Charmantier: Univ Montpellier
Camillo Cusimano: Stazione Ornitologica Aegithalos
Blandine Doligez: Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1
Szymon M. Drobniak: Jagiellonian University
Anna Dubiec: Polish Academy of Sciences
Marcel Eens: University of Antwerp
Tapio Eeva: University of Turku
Peter N. Ferns: Cardiff University
Anne E. Goodenough: University of Gloucestershire
Ian R. Hartley: Lancaster University
Shelley A. Hinsley: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Elena Ivankina: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Rimvydas Juškaitis: Nature Research Centre
Bart Kempenaers: Max Planck Institute for Ornithology
Anvar B. Kerimov: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Claire Lavigne: Plantes et Systèmes de culture Horticoles
Agu Leivits: Environmental Board
Mark C. Mainwaring: Lancaster University
Erik Matthysen: University of Antwerp
Jan-Åke Nilsson: University of Lund
Markku Orell: University of Oulu
Seppo Rytkönen: University of Oulu
Juan Carlos Senar: Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona
Ben C. Sheldon: University of Oxford
Alberto Sorace: ISPRA
Martyn J. Stenning: University of Sussex
János Török: ELTE Eötvös Loránd University
Kees Oers: Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)
Emma Vatka: University of Helsinki
Stefan J. G. Vriend: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Marcel E. Visser: Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species’ range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species’ range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29635-4

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29635-4

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