A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets

Clara Camarasa (), Érika Mata, Juan Pablo Jiménez Navarro, Janet Reyna, Paula Bezerra, Gerd Brantes Angelkorte, Wei Feng, Faidra Filippidou, Sebastian Forthuber, Chioke Harris, Nina Holck Sandberg, Sotiria Ignatiadou, Lukas Kranzl, Jared Langevin, Xu Liu, Andreas Müller, Rafael Soria, Daniel Villamar, Gabriela Prata Dias, Joel Wanemark and Katarina Yaramenka
Additional contact information
Clara Camarasa: UNEP-DTU Partnership
Érika Mata: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute
Juan Pablo Jiménez Navarro: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Janet Reyna: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
Paula Bezerra: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Gerd Brantes Angelkorte: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Wei Feng: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)
Faidra Filippidou: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Sebastian Forthuber: TU Wien, Energy Economics Group
Chioke Harris: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
Nina Holck Sandberg: SINTEF Community, Høgskoleringen
Sotiria Ignatiadou: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute
Lukas Kranzl: TU Wien, Energy Economics Group
Jared Langevin: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)
Xu Liu: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
Andreas Müller: TU Wien, Energy Economics Group
Rafael Soria: Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Diego de Robles y Vía Interoceánica, Department of Mechanical Engineering. Campus Cumbayá
Daniel Villamar: Escuela Politécnica Nacional (EPN), Departamento de Ingeniería Mecánica
Gabriela Prata Dias: UNEP-DTU Partnership
Joel Wanemark: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute
Katarina Yaramenka: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29890-5

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