Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation

Ziming Chen, Tianjun Zhou (), Xiaolong Chen, Wenxia Zhang, Lixia Zhang, Mingna Wu and Liwei Zou
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Ziming Chen: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Tianjun Zhou: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiaolong Chen: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wenxia Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Lixia Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Mingna Wu: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Liwei Zou: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract The Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) sustains billions of people living in many developing countries covering West Africa and Asia, vulnerable to climate change. Future increase in AfroASM precipitation has been projected by current state-of-the-art climate models, but large inter-model spread exists. Here we show that the projection spread is related to present-day interhemispheric thermal contrast (ITC). Based on 30 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find models with a larger ITC trend during 1981–2014 tend to project a greater precipitation increase. Since most models overestimate present-day ITC trends, emergent constraint indicates precipitation increase in constrained projection is reduced to 70% of the raw projection, with the largest reduction in West Africa (49%). The land area experiencing significant increases of precipitation (runoff) is 57% (66%) of the raw projection. Smaller increases of precipitation will likely reduce flooding risk, while posing a challenge to future water resources management.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30106-z

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