Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe

Ian J. Rickard, Colin Vullioud, François Rousset, Erik Postma, Samuli Helle, Virpi Lummaa, Ritva Kylli, Jenni E. Pettay, Eivin Røskaft, Gine R. Skjærvø, Charlotte Störmer, Eckart Voland, Dominique Waldvogel and Alexandre Courtiol ()
Additional contact information
Ian J. Rickard: Durham University
Colin Vullioud: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research
François Rousset: Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD
Erik Postma: University of Exeter
Samuli Helle: University of Turku
Virpi Lummaa: University of Turku
Ritva Kylli: University of Oulu
Jenni E. Pettay: University of Turku
Eivin Røskaft: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Gine R. Skjærvø: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Charlotte Störmer: Justus Liebig University Gießen
Eckart Voland: Justus Liebig University Gießen
Dominique Waldvogel: University of Zurich
Alexandre Courtiol: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility – a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors – which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity – a physiological predisposition to producing twins – had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility.

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30366-9

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30366-9

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