Inferring the epidemiological benefit of indoor vector control interventions against malaria from mosquito data

Ellie Sherrard-Smith, Corine Ngufor, Antoine Sanou, Moussa W. Guelbeogo, Raphael N’Guessan, Eldo Elobolobo, Francisco Saute, Kenyssony Varela, Carlos J. Chaccour, Rose Zulliger, Joseph Wagman, Molly L. Robertson, Mark Rowland, Martin J. Donnelly, Samuel Gonahasa, Sarah G. Staedke, Jan Kolaczinski and Thomas S. Churcher ()
Additional contact information
Ellie Sherrard-Smith: Imperial College London
Corine Ngufor: Centre de Recherches Entomologiques de Cotonou
Antoine Sanou: Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme
Moussa W. Guelbeogo: Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme
Raphael N’Guessan: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Eldo Elobolobo: Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça
Francisco Saute: Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça
Kenyssony Varela: Abt Associates
Carlos J. Chaccour: ISGlobal
Rose Zulliger: USAID
Joseph Wagman: PATH
Molly L. Robertson: PATH
Mark Rowland: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Martin J. Donnelly: Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine
Samuel Gonahasa: Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration
Sarah G. Staedke: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Jan Kolaczinski: World Health Organization
Thomas S. Churcher: Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The cause of malaria transmission has been known for over a century but it is still unclear whether entomological measures are sufficiently reliable to inform policy decisions in human health. Decision-making on the effectiveness of new insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) have been based on epidemiological data, typically collected in cluster-randomised control trials. The number of these trials that can be conducted is limited. Here we use a systematic review to highlight that efficacy estimates of the same intervention may vary substantially between trials. Analyses indicate that mosquito data collected in experimental hut trials can be used to parameterize mechanistic models for Plasmodium falciparum malaria and reliably predict the epidemiological efficacy of quick-acting, neuro-acting ITNs and IRS. Results suggest that for certain types of ITNs and IRS using this framework instead of clinical endpoints could support policy and expedite the widespread use of novel technologies.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30700-1

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