The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

Yusuke Satoh (), Kei Yoshimura, Yadu Pokhrel, Hyungjun Kim, Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata, Naota Hanasaki, Yoshihide Wada, Peter Burek, Edward Byers, Hannes Müller Schmied, Dieter Gerten, Sebastian Ostberg, Simon Newland Gosling, Julien Eric Stanslas Boulange and Taikan Oki
Additional contact information
Yusuke Satoh: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Kei Yoshimura: The University of Tokyo
Yadu Pokhrel: Michigan State University
Hyungjun Kim: Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
Hideo Shiogama: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tokuta Yokohata: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Naota Hanasaki: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Yoshihide Wada: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Peter Burek: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Edward Byers: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Hannes Müller Schmied: Goethe-University Frankfurt
Dieter Gerten: Member of the Leibniz Association
Sebastian Ostberg: Member of the Leibniz Association
Simon Newland Gosling: University of Nottingham
Julien Eric Stanslas Boulange: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Taikan Oki: The University of Tokyo

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30729-2 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30729-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().