Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Joshua E. Cinner (), Iain R. Caldwell, Lauric Thiault, John Ben, Julia L. Blanchard, Marta Coll, Amy Diedrich, Tyler D. Eddy, Jason D. Everett, Christian Folberth, Didier Gascuel, Jerome Guiet, Georgina G. Gurney, Ryan F. Heneghan, Jonas Jägermeyr, Narriman Jiddawi, Rachael Lahari, John Kuange, Wenfeng Liu, Olivier Maury, Christoph Müller, Camilla Novaglio, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Colleen M. Petrik, Ando Rabearisoa, Derek P. Tittensor, Andrew Wamukota and Richard Pollnac
Additional contact information
Joshua E. Cinner: James Cook University
Iain R. Caldwell: James Cook University
Lauric Thiault: PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278, CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans
John Ben: Private Fisheries and Environment Consultant
Julia L. Blanchard: University of Tasmania
Marta Coll: Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) & Ecopath International Initiative (EII)
Amy Diedrich: James Cook University
Tyler D. Eddy: Memorial University of Newfoundland
Jason D. Everett: University of Queensland
Christian Folberth: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Didier Gascuel: DECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), Institut Agro / Inrae / Ifremer
Jerome Guiet: University of California
Georgina G. Gurney: James Cook University
Ryan F. Heneghan: Queensland University of Technology
Jonas Jägermeyr: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Narriman Jiddawi: University of Dar Es Salaam
Rachael Lahari: Environment and Marine Scientist
John Kuange: Wildlife Conservation Society
Wenfeng Liu: China Agricultural University
Olivier Maury: MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer
Christoph Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Camilla Novaglio: University of Tasmania
Juliano Palacios-Abrantes: University of Wisconsin – Madison
Colleen M. Petrik: University of California
Ando Rabearisoa: University of California, Santa Cruz
Derek P. Tittensor: Dalhousie University
Andrew Wamukota: Pwani University
Richard Pollnac: University of Rhode Island

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4

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