Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation

Ruiqiang Ding (), Yu‐Heng Tseng, Emanuele Lorenzo, Liang Shi, Jianping Li (), Jin-Yi Yu, Chunzai Wang, Cheng Sun, Jing-Jia Luo, Kyung‑Ja Ha, Zeng-Zhen Hu and Feifei Li
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Ruiqiang Ding: Beijing Normal University
Yu‐Heng Tseng: National Taiwan University
Emanuele Lorenzo: Georgia Institute of Technology
Liang Shi: Lanzhou University
Jianping Li: Ocean University of China
Jin-Yi Yu: University of California
Chunzai Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Cheng Sun: Beijing Normal University
Jing-Jia Luo: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Kyung‑Ja Ha: Pusan National University
Zeng-Zhen Hu: Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Feifei Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting behaviors are still not fully understood. Here we present a two-way feedback mechanism between the tropics and extratropics to argue that extratropical atmospheric variability associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is a key source of multi-year El Niño events. The NPO during boreal winter can trigger a Central Pacific El Niño during the subsequent winter, which excites atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropics that re-energize the NPO variability, then re-triggers another El Niño event in the following winter, finally resulting in persistent El Niño-like states. Model experiments, with the NPO forcing assimilated to constrain atmospheric circulation, reproduce the observed connection between NPO forcing and the occurrence of multi-year El Niño events. Future projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 models demonstrate that with enhanced NPO variability under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent multi-year El Niño events should be expected. We conclude that properly accounting for the effects of the NPO on the evolution of El Niño events may improve multi-year El Niño prediction and projection.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31516-9

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