Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

Douglas J. Kennett (), Marilyn Masson, Carlos Peraza Lope, Stanley Serafin, Richard J. George, Tom C. Spencer, Julie A. Hoggarth, Brendan J. Culleton, Thomas K. Harper, Keith M. Prufer, Susan Milbrath, Bradley W. Russell, Eunice Uc González, Weston C. McCool, Valorie V. Aquino, Elizabeth H. Paris, Jason H. Curtis, Norbert Marwan, Mingua Zhang, Yemane Asmerom, Victor J. Polyak, Stacy A. Carolin, Daniel H. James, Andrew J. Mason, Gideon M. Henderson, Mark Brenner, James U. L. Baldini, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach and David A. Hodell ()
Additional contact information
Douglas J. Kennett: University of California
Marilyn Masson: The University of Albany-SUNY
Carlos Peraza Lope: Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia – Centro INAH Yucatán
Stanley Serafin: University of New South Wales
Richard J. George: University of California
Tom C. Spencer: University of Cambridge
Julie A. Hoggarth: Baylor University
Brendan J. Culleton: The Pennsylvania State University
Thomas K. Harper: The Pennsylvania State University
Keith M. Prufer: University of New Mexico
Susan Milbrath: University of Florida
Bradley W. Russell: The University of Albany-SUNY
Eunice Uc González: Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia – Centro INAH Yucatán
Weston C. McCool: University of Utah
Valorie V. Aquino: University of New Mexico
Elizabeth H. Paris: University of Calgary
Jason H. Curtis: University of Florida
Norbert Marwan: Member of the Leibniz Association
Mingua Zhang: Stony Brook University
Yemane Asmerom: University of New Mexico
Victor J. Polyak: University of New Mexico
Stacy A. Carolin: University of Cambridge
Daniel H. James: University of Cambridge
Andrew J. Mason: Oxford University
Gideon M. Henderson: Oxford University
Mark Brenner: University of Florida
James U. L. Baldini: University of Durham
Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach: Northumbria University
David A. Hodell: University of Cambridge

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31522-x

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x

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